Methodology & Sources
Exityear Lite
Nominal vs. Real Math
All internal calculations in Exityear Lite run on a strictly nominal basis. Asset growth rates and return assumptions represent raw nominal percentages (e.g. 7% per year). Inflation is compounded and applied directly to future income streams, living expenses, and withdrawals.
When you select "Today's money" on the main chart, the engine deflates nominal figures using standard present-value discounting:
Value_Today = Value_Nominal / (1 + inflation_rate) ^ years_from_start
Account-Aware Tax Modeling
Unlike basic retirement calculators that pool all investments into a single tax-free bucket, Exityear models specific account tax behaviors:
- Cash & Emergency Reserves: Liquid withdrawals incur no additional tax liability.
- Taxable Brokerage: Withdrawals are split between principal cost basis and capital gains, with capital gains taxed according to your configured rate.
- Pre-Tax Accounts (Traditional 401(k), IRA, 403(b), Pensions): Distributions count as ordinary taxable income. Withdrawals before age 59.5 are flagged with statutory penalty considerations.
- Tax-Free Accounts (Roth IRA, Roth 401(k), HSA): Qualified distributions are tax-free. Contributions to HSAs reduce taxable wage income in the contribution year.
Statutory Tax Data & Citations
Tax tables and thresholds are calibrated against published US statutory schedules:
- Federal Income Tax Brackets: Calibrated using IRS Revenue Procedures for Single, Married Filing Jointly, and Head of Household tax brackets (IRC §1, §63).
- FICA Taxes: 6.2% Social Security up to the statutory wage base limit and 1.45% Medicare tax, plus the 0.9% Additional Medicare Tax on high earners (IRC §3101).
- 50-State Income Tax Tables: State-level tax computations use graduated bracket rates, standard deductions, and flat-tax schedules compiled from state department of revenue statutes.
- ACA Subsidies & Healthcare: Pre-65 healthcare subsidy modeling references Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) benchmark premiums and HHS Federal Poverty Line (FPL) multiplier tables.
Debt & Mortgage Amortization
Liabilities model true fixed-rate loan amortization using standard annuity formulas:
Payment = (Principal * monthly_rate * (1 + monthly_rate)^months) / ((1 + monthly_rate)^months - 1)
Real estate assets are treated as illiquid. Property equity builds net worth as debt amortizes and property appreciates, but is never liquidated to fund monthly living expenses.
Monte Carlo Simulations
Deterministic projections assume constant linear returns. To model sequence of returns risk, the Monte Carlo engine runs hundreds of randomized market paths based on standard normal return distributions to compute the empirical success rate of your plan through life expectancy.